The Nile River, a lifeline for over 250 million people across 10 African countries, is at the center of a complex geopolitical struggle. As climate change intensifies, the river’s waters are becoming increasingly scarce, threatening regional stability and food security. This year’s Nile Day celebrations in Addis Ababa, showed the urgent need for cooperation among the Nile Basin countries. The region is facing pressing challenges of water security, climate resilience, and the need for a permanent institutional framework to manage the Nile’s resources.
The Geopolitical Landscape of the Nile
The Nile Basin is home to some of the world’s most water-stressed nations. Egypt and Sudan, located downstream, have historically relied on colonial-era agreements—the 1929 and 1959 treaties—that granted them the lion’s share of the Nile’s waters. However, upstream countries like Ethiopia, Uganda, and Tanzania have increasingly challenged these agreements, arguing that they are outdated and inequitable.
The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), established in 1999, was a significant step toward regional cooperation. However, the initiative has faced challenges in achieving its goals due to geopolitical tensions and competing national interests. The push for a permanent Nile Basin Commission, which would replace the NBI, has been a focal point of recent discussions. Ethiopian President Taye Atske-Selassie, speaking at the Nile Day celebrations, explained the need for a stronger institutional framework. “This organization would provide a strong institutional framework for coordinated management, dispute resolution, and long-term strategic planning for our shared waters,” he said.
The Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)
The Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), signed in 2010, aims to replace the colonial-era treaties and establish a more equitable framework for managing the Nile’s waters. Six of the ten Nile Basin countries—Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, and Burundi—have ratified the CFA. South Sudan’s ratification in July 2023 marked a significant milestone, meeting the threshold required to establish the Nile Basin Commission.
However, Egypt, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Kenya have yet to ratify the agreement. Egypt, in particular, has been vocal in its opposition, arguing that the CFA undermines its historical rights to the Nile’s waters. Prof. Hani Sewilam, Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, noted that Egypt seeks “to have its own fundamental right to life and livelihood considered and approved.” He also expressed concerns that the CFA could lead to unilateral actions by upstream countries, potentially reducing Egypt’s water supply.
Climate Change: A Growing Threat to Water Security
Climate change is exacerbating the challenges faced by the Nile Basin countries. Erratic weather patterns, prolonged droughts, and devastating floods have become more frequent, threatening water security and agricultural productivity. Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a flagship project aimed at mitigating these challenges, has been a point of contention. While Ethiopia views the dam as a critical tool for climate resilience and energy production, downstream countries like Egypt and Sudan fear it could reduce their water supply.
Habtamu Itefa, Ethiopia’s Minister of Water and Energy, explained the importance of regional cooperation in addressing these challenges. “No part of the Nile Basin is immune to the adverse effects of climate change,” he said. “Genuine cooperation, enhanced by legal and institutional mechanisms, will lead to better climate resilience and shared prosperity.”
The GERD, with its vast hydropower capacity, is expected to generate clean, renewable energy for the region, reducing dependence on fossil fuels and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. However, its construction has sparked tensions between Ethiopia and downstream countries, particularly Egypt, which relies on the Nile for 90% of its water supply.
Navigating Geopolitical Tensions
The establishment of the Nile Basin Commission has been delayed due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. A planned heads-of-state summit in Kampala last October was postponed to allow for further consultations among member states. Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, in consultation with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, decided to delay the summit to ensure inclusivity and address the concerns of all parties.
Dr. Callist Tindimugaya, Chairperson of the Nile Technical Advisory Committee, confirmed that the commission technically came into force on October 13, 2024, but the transition from the NBI to the commission is expected to take one to two years. “We want to make sure that everybody is on board,” he said, explaining the importance of engaging Egypt, Sudan, the DRC, and Kenya in the process.
The Role of Development Partners
International development partners have played a key role in supporting the Nile Basin Initiative and fostering regional cooperation. Heiko Nitzschke, Germany’s Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, explained the importance of cooperation in addressing climate change. “In a region that sees enough challenges, water should not become yet another source of tension,” he said. “Cooperation has shown that the Nile Basin region will be strong.”
Development partners, including the World Bank, the European Union, and the African Development Bank, have supported infrastructure projects, capacity-building programs, and data-sharing initiatives. These efforts have contributed to tangible outcomes, such as the construction of 6,595 kilometers of power interconnections, increased hydropower generation, and the restoration of degraded watersheds.
The Nile at The Crossroads
The Nile Basin countries face a critical juncture. The establishment of the Nile Basin Commission represents an opportunity to strengthen regional cooperation and address shared challenges. However, the success of this initiative depends on the willingness of all member states to engage in dialogue and compromise.
Pal Mai Deng, South Sudan’s Minister of Water and Irrigation, explained the importance of cooperation. “Through shared knowledge, resources, and technical expertise, we can address issues of water scarcity, manage droughts and floods, and develop joint solutions to the environmental and socio-economic issues that we face,” he said.
The establishment of the Nile Basin Commission, coupled with sustained support from development partners, offers a pathway to a more resilient and prosperous future for the region. The challenges are immense, but the potential for transformative change is equally significant. The Nile, a symbol of unity and shared heritage, must continue to flow as a source of life and hope for generations to come.
The Nile’s geopolitics are a microcosm of the broader challenges facing transboundary water management in an era of climate change. The river’s waters are a source of both conflict and cooperation, and the future of the Nile Basin will depend on the ability of its member states to find common ground.
As President Taye Atske-Selassie said, “Together, we can ensure that the Nile remains a symbol of hope, resilience, and unity for generations to come.” The stakes are high, but the potential for a cooperative, sustainable future is within reach—if the nations of the Nile Basin can rise above their differences and work together for the common good.
