East Africa is set for a scorching January 2025 and a rain-lashed March.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and regional weather agencies agree on this forecast. They blame changing ocean temperatures, the possibility of a La Nina phase, and ongoing climate warming.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) released a report in which it warned of drier-than-usual conditions in parts of central and north-eastern Ethiopia, Kenya, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania through January.
Warmer-than-usual temperatures are likely across most of East Africa for the entire January to March 2025 season.
WMO data shows that there is a 55% chance of transitioning from neutral conditions to La Niña in December 2024–February 2025. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) swings can cause drastic shifts in global weather.
An emerging La Niña period often results in hotter, drier stretches in certain parts of East Africa, with possible heavier rains in others.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated, “Even in the absence of El Niño or La Niña conditions since May, we have witnessed an extraordinary series of extreme weather events.” She added that greenhouse gases have pushed global temperatures higher than ever, overshadowing any temporary cooling effect a La Niña might bring.
ICPAC’s forecast depends on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). This model produces regional forecasts on a 10-by-10-kilometer grid. It helps local farmers plan planting schedules and offers early warnings for floods or drought.
ICPAC’s data also show that March 2025 could see torrential rains in southern Tanzania and parts of south-western Uganda.
These rains might spark flooding, especially if the ground remains dry and hard until late February.
The report attributes the hot temperatures to short-term ocean variability, especially the cooling of the eastern Pacific that fosters a La Niña patternand. It further points out to the long-term effects of climate change.
Global greenhouse gas levels reached record highs in 2024, trapping more heat in the atmosphere. According to the WMO, Africa warms faster than the global average.
Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) Director Dr. David Gikungu advised caution.
He said, “A few areas in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Coastal region may receive occasional rainfall in January.”
He added that this rainfall could be near or below normal levels. For most other areas, scorching daytime temperatures and dry skies will dominate. Personal accounts from Turkana County in northern Kenya reflected the danger of hot seasons. Farmers recalled the 2020–2023 drought, when entire herds died from thirst and hunger.
If this predicted January heat mirrors past extremes, local water sources might run dry again.
Communities could face conflict over wells, further stressing an already vulnerable population. The WMO notes that since 2000, climate-related disasters in Africa have cost over $500 billion in damage.
The 2023–2024 period alone saw 61 million people affected by drought in Southern Africa and 5 million impacted by floods in Eastern Africa. These shocks disrupt agriculture, push food prices up, and strain emergency response efforts. WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett says, “ENSO changes in rainfall and temperature are predictable, but climate change may alter frequency and intensity.”
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains the role of neutral ENSO conditions that have prevailed since May 2024. It says the shift to La Niña is slow because wind patterns have not favored a rapid cooling of Pacific waters. But the numerical models keep showing a gradual move toward La Niña thresholds by early 2025. When that happens, it may amplify the heat in some parts of East Africa.
The Kenya Meteorological Department expects the dryness to intensify. By early March, though, certain regions may pivot to heavy rainfall. South-western Uganda, for example, has a history of flash floods and landslides when sudden downpours hit baked soil.
The region’s question remains: Why are temperatures climbing beyond standard seasonal levels? Scientific research findings indicate that greenhouse gas-driven warming is shifting climate baselines.
According to a 2024 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Africa’s average temperature has already risen about 1.2°C since pre-industrial times. Hot months are now hotter, and heatwaves occur more often.
In northern Tanzania, coffee growers note how hotter nights affect plant flowering. They see blooms arriving too soon, followed by dry spells that reduce yields. Families who rely on coffee sales then struggle to cover household expenses, fueling a cycle of vulnerability.
Food And Agriculture Organization(FAO) and WMO warn farmers to consider heat-tolerant crop varieties and water-saving irrigation. They recommend storing fodder for livestock in case pastureland dries out quickly.
The agencies suggest planting earlier if short rains do appear. Iturge building terraces or water pans to capture any sudden storms in March. The WMO acknowledges that La Niña can sometimes bring cooler global average temperatures, but this effect shrinks in a warming world.
Secretary-General Saulo explained, “Even if a La Niña event does emerge, its short-term cooling impact will be insufficient to counterbalance the warming effect of record heat-trapping greenhouse gases.”
She stated that shocks happen repeatedly, giving people less time to recover between events.
She urged governments to ustilize cross-border cooperation, so surplus foods in wetter areas can reach drought-stricken communities.
While Gikungu said mobile alerts and community radio programs can ensure local people have up-to-date information. He said, “Farmers, pastoralists, and policymakers now face difficult decisions. They stand ready to endure intense heat in January, then possible deluges in March.”
He added that policy makers and communities want to guard against water shortages but also brace for flash floods. “ Such extreme swings highlight the complexity of climate risks in a rapidly warming world,”he said. “Understanding what is coming allows us to prepare,” Gikungu said.
