Nigeria has announced new climate goals, pledging deeper emission cuts, a just transition, greener jobs and unlocking innovation. In its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC3.0), launched on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), the African oil and gas powerhouse committed to reducing emissions by 32 per cent by 2030, in what many experts say could be the nation’s most ambitious climate target to date.
The country has also set a roadmap to ensure 100 per cent electricity access in the next five years, with 50 per cent renewable energy share in the generation mix by 2030 and a 9 per cent annual pace of new electricity connections until 2030.
Net-zero pathway
In its roadmap, Nigeria targets an absolute emissions reduction of 168 million tonnes of greenhouse gases by 2030, and 185 million tonnes by 2035, compared to what it emitted in 2018. This represents a 29 per cent and 32 per cent cut, respectively. The commitment, the document shows, builds on Nigeria’s Climate Change Act of 2021, which enshrined a net-zero target for 2060.
Electric Mobility
Under its high ambition pathway, Nigeria aims to cut fugitive methane emissions (leaks and venting) from oil and gas by 95 per cent by 2050, and promote electric mobility with 30 per cent of vehicles running on electricity and 20 per cent on compressed natural gas by 2035. This move, which also encompasses expanding access to clean cooking solutions, is expected to reduce the rate of unemployment by creating 170,000 jobs by 2030 and more than 420,000 by 2060.
Less deforestation, more trees
In its 2021 National Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) Strategy, Nigeria unveiled plans to reduce forest sector emissions by 20 per cent by 2050. The new NDCs, however, highlight ambitions to have land-use and forestry sector (LULUCF) deliver nearly 74 per cent of total emission cuts in the next five years. Targets also include planting 25 million trees under agroecology in settlement areas annually, and protecting 162,000 ha of degraded forests while establishing forest reserves. Agriculture will contribute through climate-smart farming, rice cultivation improvements, and better livestock management.
Call for international support
But its ambition hinges on international support, Nigeria disclosed. Between 2015 and 2021, the West African country received US dollars 4.93 billion in climate finance, mostly in concessional loans, an amount dwarfed by the US dollars 270 billion external financing required for the NDC 3.0 implementation. Nigeria estimates the full implementation of its NDC 3.0, encompassing technology transfer, development and capacity building, will cost US dollars 337 billion by 2035, with US dollars 270 billion (80 per cent) dependent on international finance. The pledge maintains a 20 per cent unconditional cut, funded domestically.
The updated pledge, a requirement under the Paris Agreement, which is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, significantly raises Nigeria’s ambitions from its earlier plans. Experts say it could be the nation’s most ambitious climate target to date. As the world grapples with a warming climate and more frequent extreme weather events, the NDCs remain central to global efforts to address climate change. With its submission, Nigeria becomes the fifth country in Africa and the first in West Africa to submit the third iteration of NDCs. So far, only 50 countries have made their submissions.
A reflection of the country’s needs
In his foreword, President Bola Tinubu said the new pledges were deeply entrenched in the country’s realities. “Its preparation was deliberately inclusive, drawing from the expertise, experiences, and aspirations of stakeholders across government, the private sector, civil society, academia, youth, women, Indigenous Peoples, elders, and persons with disabilities.”
Mrs Tenioye Majekodunmi, Director General of Nigeria’s National Council on Climate Change, lauded NDC3.0, describing it as a shift from a business-as-usual pathway to an absolute and economy-wide emission reduction approach grounded in the latest science.
“Delivering on these commitments will require partnership, technology, and finance at scale. Ambition alone is not enough. Proper implementation of the NDC is essential for success, and that is where Nigeria is ready to roll up its sleeves. We therefore call on the international community—governments, the private sector, civil society, and development partners—to stand with us, invest with us, and walk this journey with us,” said DG Majekodunmi.
Kashim Shettima, Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, expressed optimism for making Nigeria a top destination for green investment globally. “We have the people, the resources, and— crucially—the policy framework now in place to deliver on our vision of a net-zero transition by 2060.”
At the unveiling of the NDC3.0, Balarabe Abbas Lawal, Nigeria’s Minister of Environment, described the new action plans as a culmination of more than a decade’s effort to mainstream climate change into the national and economic development planning. “With a President who is adept at economic innovation and supported by a dexterous cabinet, we have delivered an economy-wide climate plan. With this framework firmly in place, the Federal Ministry of Environment, alongside the National Council on Climate Change, will work with other stakeholders and the private sector to drive Nigeria’s climate ambition. As a ministry, our doors are open to welcome global development and financial partners to partner with us to transform this plan to visible action through investible opportunities that support growth and economic development for the most vulnerable Nigerians on the frontline of climate impact,” Hon Balarabe Abbas Lawal said.
Stakeholders, including civil society, recognise the ambition of the new targets but stress that real success will hinge on how well they are put into practice. Olumide Idowu, Climate Activist and Director, ICCD, said, “Nigeria NDC 3.0 has shown that Adaptation actions will ensure equitable access to basic services, natural resources, and sustainable housing, particularly for women, youth, Indigenous Peoples, and vulnerable communities. — If proper implementation follows.”
