The February 2025 deadline for updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) has been extended to September 2025, giving African nations more time to refine their climate action plans. NDCs, critical under the Paris Agreement, outline each country’s efforts to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts. However, as of now, only Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Lesotho have submitted their NDCs for the 2025-2030 period.
Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, explained the importance of quality over speed in NDC submissions. “These plans are among the most important policy documents governments will produce this century,” he said during a speech in Brasília on February 6, 2025. Stiell acknowledged the capacity challenges many developing nations face, particularly in Africa, where limited technical expertise, financial constraints, and governance issues hinder progress. “The vast majority of countries have indicated they will submit new plans this year,” he noted, but stressed that taking extra time to ensure these plans are robust is essential.
Africa’s struggles are rooted in systemic issues. The continent contributes less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions but suffers disproportionately from climate impacts, including droughts, floods, and desertification. These crises strain already fragile economies and infrastructure. For example, extreme weather events in 2023 alone displaced over 2 million people in Africa, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. Stiell explained the need for international support, stating, “The UN system is here to assist governments that need help developing their climate plans.”
Financing remains a barrier..“Climate finance is not charity, ”he said.“It is crucial to protecting global supply chains from spiraling climate disasters.”The new global climat finance goal of $2 trillion flowed into clean energy globally in 2024, most African nations missed out on this boom due to high costs of capital and limited access to climate finance. “Climate finance is not charity,” he said. “It is crucial to protecting global supply chains from spiraling climate disasters.”
The new global climate finance goal of $300 billion, agreed upon in Baku, is a start but falls short of the $1.3 trillion needed annually to meet global climate targets. Stiell urged nations to prioritize adaptation, noting that “every dollar invested in adaptation is worth six in loss and damage bills avoided.”
Implementation Gaps and Unrealistic Targets
Botswana’s recent submission retains its previous 15% emission reduction target, while Lesotho’s NDC focuses on incremental improvements. However, Somalia has opted to maintain its current NDC, citing implementation challenges. “Somalia hasn’t been able to implement its current NDC, so there’s no point in committing to more ambitious targets,” said Telvin Muta Denje, a Research Fellow at the African Group of Negotiators Experts Support (AGNES).
Somalia’s decision to maintain its current NDCs indicates challenges the country faces in implementing more ambitious climate actions. As one of the world’s most vulnerable nations to climate change, Somalia is already grappling with severe impacts, including prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, and desertification.
These environmental crises are compounded by decades of political instability, weak governance, and economic fragility, which have left the country ill-equipped to design and execute comprehensive climate strategies. With limited institutional capacity and technical expertise, Somalia struggles to access and effectively utilize international climate finance, further constraining its ability to meet global climate targets.
The country’s heavy reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and pastoralism exacerbates its vulnerability. Recurrent climate-related disasters, such as floods and locust infestations, divert scarce resources from long-term planning to emergency response efforts.
Additionally, widespread poverty and internal displacement caused by both conflict and climate change create urgent humanitarian needs that overshadow long-term climate goals. Somalia’s fragile economy, burdened by debt and limited access to international funding, leaves little room for investment in climate resilience or the diversification of livelihoods. These challenges are further amplified by a lack of robust data collection and monitoring systems, which are critical for informed decision-making and attracting international support.
As a country that contributes minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions but bears a disproportionate burden of climate impacts, Somalia has called for greater international solidarity and financial assistance. However, the response from the global community has been inadequate, leaving the nation to navigate its climate challenges with limited resources. Without significant external support, including funding, technology transfer, and capacity-building, Somalia’s ability to enhance its climate ambitions will remain constrained.
He cited Namibia’s NDC in the last submission, which aimed for a 98% emission reduction, as unrealistic. “A 98% reduction would require a complete economic overhaul,” noted Denje, “Such targets, often set by external consultants, lack grounding in local realities.”
Technical and Financial Barriers
Many African countries initially relied on consultants to draft their NDCs, leading to overly ambitious or disconnected targets. “Technical expertise and financial resources are major barriers,” said Denje. “Developing NDCs requires significant capacity, which many countries lack.”
For example, Kenya’s NDC in the last submission targeted a 32% emission reduction, largely from the energy sector. However, with Kenya’s energy mix already 94% renewable, achieving further reductions is challenging. “Targets must align with sectoral realities,” Denje explained.
Conditional Targets and Climate Finance
Implementing NDCs in Africa requires substantial financial resources. Collectively, African countries have estimated that around $2.8 trillion is needed between 2020 and 2030 to implement their NDCs. However, domestic public resources account for only about 10% of this total, making it a significant reliance on international support.
International support is key for African countries to meet their NDC targets. This includes financial assistance, technology transfer, and capacity building. The African Development Bank has explained the potential of NDCs as an investment opportunity worth $3 trillion through 2030, stressing the need for substantial international collaboration.
Most African NDCs include conditional targets dependent on international climate finance. Botswana’s NDC, for instance, commits to a 6% unconditional reduction, with an additional 18% contingent on external funding. However, linking these targets to national budgets remains a challenge. “Many climate actions aren’t reflected in government budgets, making implementation difficult,” explained Denje.
Monitoring and Evaluation Challenges
Robust monitoring systems are essential for tracking NDC progress, but many countries lack the necessary infrastructure. “Without proper tracking, it’s hard to know if targets are being met,” said Denje. The Biannual Transparency Reports (BTRs) will provide insights into current NDC implementation.
Balancing Climate Action and Development
African countries face the dual challenge of addressing climate change while pursuing sustainable development. “Africa contributes only 4% of global emissions but bears the brunt of climate impacts,” noted Denje. “We must balance emission reductions with development priorities.”The continent’s unique vulnerabilities, including rising temperatures and extreme weather events, shows the urgency of climate action. However, achieving the 1.5°C target requires global cooperation. “Even if Africa reduces its emissions, global efforts must intensify to make a meaningful impact,” Denje added. To enhance NDC effectiveness, African countries must prioritize realistic, locally grounded targets and strengthen technical and financial capacities. Aligning NDCs with national budgets and improving monitoring systems are also critical.
Multiple gaps and solutions
Africa faces a dual challenge of addressing energy poverty while transitioning to low-carbon development. Over 600 million people in Africa lack access to electricity, and many countries rely on fossil fuels for energy generation. Balancing the urgent need for economic development and energy access with the imperative to reduce emissions is a complex task.Africa is disproportionately affected by climate change, with rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and extreme weather events threatening agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods. Many NDCs prioritize adaptation measures, but the costs of adaptation are high, and funding for adaptation remains insufficient compared to mitigation efforts.
The private sector plays an important role in driving innovation and investment in climate-friendly technologies. However, in many African countries, the private sector’s involvement in NDC implementation is limited due to perceived risks, lack of incentives, and underdeveloped financial markets. Political instability, corruption, and weak governance structures in some African countries can hinder the effective implementation of climate policies. Ensuring transparency, accountability, and stakeholder participation is essential but often challenging. As the deadline approaches, international support will be crucial. “Development partners are assisting countries in finalizing their NDCs, but more funding and capacity-building are needed,” said Denje.
He added: “The slow pace of submissions shows a broader systemic challenges, but with targeted interventions, African nations can strengthen their climate commitments and contribute to global climate goals.”
With COP30 in Brazil later this year, the global community must step up to ensure African countries are not left behind. “We have broken through,” Stiell said, quoting a Brazilian proverb. “Now let’s mobilize and pick up the pace, so everyone is brought along with us.” The extension offers a chance for Africa to strengthen its climate plans, but only if supported by adequate resources and international cooperation.
