Across the Horn of Africa—encompassing Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya—millions are grappling with the effects of increasingly severe droughts and erratic rainfall patterns. These climatic shifts are pushing entire communities to the brink, forcing families from their homes, straining urban centers, and complicating efforts for sustainable livelihood recovery.
Displaced families often find themselves struggling to access basic resources, while governments and international organizations work tirelessly to mitigate the crisis.
Displacement due to drought
The impact of this crisis on migration is staggering. As of late 2023, an estimated 2.2 million people have been displaced across the region due to climate-related events, primarily drought.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that drought accounted for over half of the displacement cases in Ethiopia, with over 520,000 individuals leaving their homes due to failed harvests and parched land.
In Somalia, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that nearly 1.5 million people have been uprooted since 2021.
Jan Egeland, Secretary-General of the Norwegian Refugee Council, captures the gravity of the situation: “The Horn of Africa is facing one of its worst humanitarian crises in history. The drought has stripped families of their means to survive, leaving them no choice but to move. These families aren’t just displaced—they’re desperate.”
Impact on livelihoods and Agriculture
The drought is decimating agriculture and livestock, essential for the survival of many in these regions. In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia combined, over 9 million livestock have perished in just the past two years.
This loss has ripple effects on the community. Milk, a staple for millions of children, is now scarce. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) estimates that children under five in these areas have missed out on an estimated 120 million liters of milk, a situation contributing to severe malnutrition among children.
The local impact is compounded by ongoing rainfall irregularities. Climatologist Dr. Sarah Feakins from the University of Southern California explained, “The climate patterns that have sustained these regions for centuries are shifting. The unpredictability of rainfall is making it impossible for farmers and herders to plan.”
Feakins’ research shows how families dependent on seasonal rains face continual disruptions, leading to more forced migrations.
Urban centers strained
As rural populations are displaced, urban centers like Mogadishu, Nairobi, and Addis Ababa are experiencing an influx of people, straining resources and infrastructure.
Many new arrivals settle in overcrowded camps on the city outskirts, where they lack basic amenities. UN-Habitat reports that the demand for water, food, and sanitation in these areas has doubled, further complicating relief efforts.
In Mogadishu, Mayor Omar Mohamud Mohamed commented on the city’s efforts to support displaced families: “We are trying to provide them with shelter, but our resources are limited. We cannot sustain this level of influx indefinitely.”
Humanitarian response and aid programs
To address the rising needs, international and regional organizations are mobilizing resources. The United Nations has classified the Horn of Africa crisis as a “Level 3 emergency,” the highest level of humanitarian response.
In response, agencies like the World Food Programme (WFP) and UNICEF have ramped up food aid, distributing emergency food supplies to affected families.
David Beasley, the Executive Director of the WFP, has been vocal about the need for sustained funding: “Without immediate and substantial financial support, we risk millions of people falling deeper into hunger. We need more resources to keep people alive and to provide sustainable solutions.” Beasley’s plea explained the ongoing need for a stable influx of aid funding to keep up with the crisis.
The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has pledged over $2 billion in aid to support relief efforts in the Horn of Africa.
In a statement, USAID Administrator Samantha Power said, “This crisis requires a coordinated, multilateral approach. We are working closely with local governments and other international partners to ensure aid reaches the people who need it most.”
In Kenya, the government has launched the Kenya Drought Flash Appeal, a program aimed at providing immediate relief to families affected by drought.
The appeal includes provisions for food, water, and sanitation services. Ethiopian authorities have implemented their own Drought Response Plan, which includes steps for distributing emergency aid while also exploring long-term solutions for climate resilience.
Climate-driven migration
The impact of climate-driven displacement is evident in the lives of families forced to relocate. Amina, a mother of four from Somalia, was forced to move to a makeshift camp on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
Her family depended on livestock to survive, but the prolonged drought wiped out her herd, leaving her no choice but to leave. “My children are hungry, and we have nothing left. Here, at least, we hope someone will give us food and water,” Amina said, her voice filled with sorrow.
In Ethiopia, Abebe, a farmer from the Oromia region, recalls watching his fields dry up over the past two years. His family has since relocated to Addis Ababa, where they now live in a cramped room. “This city is different, and we struggle every day. We had a life back home, but it’s gone now,” he shared.
Challenges and future considerations
The consequences of these climate-induced displacements extend beyond immediate survival needs. Health risks are on the rise, as overcrowded settlements increase the likelihood of disease transmission.
The World Health Organization (WHO) warned of a surge in malnutrition-related diseases, especially among children. “The health impact of climate-driven displacement is far-reaching, from malnutrition to waterborne diseases,” Dr. Michael Ryan, WHO’s Executive Director, said in a press release.
Women and children face additional protection risks. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has reported a rise in gender-based violence in overcrowded camps. Dr. Natalia Kanem, UNFPA’s Executive Director, called for urgent measures to protect vulnerable populations: “These families have already lost so much. We need to create safe spaces for them where they can receive protection and support.”
Local and regional solutions remain essential to address both immediate and long-term needs. Several countries in the region are adopting policies to build resilience against future climate impacts. Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) has introduced training programs for farmers on water conservation techniques. Ethiopia’s government has also initiated afforestation projects aimed at countering the effects of deforestation and land degradation.
However, experts stress that without global action, these regional efforts may only have limited impact. Environmental scientist Dr. Mohammed Yasin explained, “What we’re seeing in the Horn of Africa is just the beginning. Climate change is a global problem, and it requires global solutions. The world cannot ignore these signs any longer.”
