The just concluded COP30 in Belem, Brazil, delivered on some commitments, particularly triple Adaptation finance, protecting the world’s forests and giving a voice to indigenous communities, but failed on one of the most crucial veins of the negotiations; a road-map to transition away from fossil fuels.
From the beginning, the negotiations were without a formal track on fossil fuel transition. Andre Correa do Lago, the COP30 President, had earlier promised to inject text into the action agenda, and raised hope that there would be a compass to navigate a process that first made progress four years ago in Glasgow, Scotland. This was, however, not to be.
The best in this regard was Belem’s delivery of a voluntary, non-binding plan to curb fossil fuels, outside formal negotiations, following pressure by some 86 countries, including host Brazil, Cape Verde, Comoros, Guinea Bissau, Kenya, Mauritius, and Sierra Leone, which backed a call for a road-map.
Bill Hare, the chief executive and senior scientist at Climate Analytics, sees the outcome as a COP capture by the fossil fuel industry, which was represented by more than 1,600 lobbyists.
Sable Samuel, the head of Africa campaigns and advocacy at the Fossil Fuel Non- Proliferation Treaty Initiative argues that working with Edelman, a public relations firm that also represents Shell Global, to manage the COP30 media contract of nearly $1 million, contributed to the outcome deadlock aimed at stalling, deceiving, green-washing obstructing and derailing just energy transition. Several experts are not amused.
“Instead of a clear time-bound plan to transition away from coal, oil and gas, which the implementation of the already agreed goals to triple renewables, double efficiency and reduce emissions would trigger, we are left with words and no agreed actions that match the scale of the crisis,” said Hare.
A binding decision on transitioning away from fossil fuels would have been a breakthrough for Africa and the climate process, which, for the longest time, has been spinning around Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and not curbing fossil fuel generation as their biggest source.
The divisions have henceforth created lots of challenges for Africa’s budding economies, which are mostly anchored on agricultural production, and which in future, are expected to power their growth through renewable energy generation and green minerals exploration. It is easy to see how.
The latest UN Emissions Gap report confirmed that the world is off the track in meeting the Paris Agreement on limiting global average temperature increases to 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels. The consequences of this diversion are already pummeling Africa. For instance, agriculture is under siege, as intense floods sweep crop fields bare, erratic rains strain harvests, while prolonged drought cycles decimate livestock. Lately, working hours in the farms have also shortened due to the risk of exposure to extreme heat. The UN report indicates that fossil fuels account for about 68% of GHG emissions and nearly 90% of all carbon dioxide emissions.
Had Belem adopted a binding fossil fuel transition roadmap, it would have reset a global course for Africa to plug the widening gap between climate ambition and implementation, and armed it with the potential to battle poverty through sustainable development.
“Transitioning away from fossil fuels is key to sustainable development and poverty reduction. We have to be honest that in some countries we are not talking poverty reduction through fossil fuel production anymore. By far not,” said Jennifer Bansard, a team leader at Earth Negotiation Bulletin.
Within this context, experts argue that Africa unfairly bears a burden of battling climate change, considering it contributes less than 4% of GHGs. According to Mo Ibrahim, who is the Mo Ibrahim Foundation chair and co-founder, this approach is not only misguided, but also profoundly unfair.
Instead, its narrative should be about development based on realities facing the continent. But the lack of clarity on how the world plans to phase out coal, oil and gas has shifted the burden back to countries weighed down by high debt burden and limited fiscal space. Paragraph 28 of a previous COP28 decision is clear that transitioning must go hand in hand with tripling of renewables, and doubling energy efficiency.
The consequence of this extra burden to Africa is slow investments in renewable energy, delaying of capital needed for Adaptation and Loss and Damage, while resources are diverted from protecting ecosystems, argues Dr. Muhtari Aminu-Kano, the director of policy and government relations, Africa Region, at The Nature Conservancy.
“For Africa, a fair and well-managed transition is not optional. It requires predictable, long-term finance, stronger support for nature-based solutions, and investment in the people and communities building resilience today. The path to 1.5°C depends on accelerating the equitable transition away from fossil fuels while scaling durable finance and protecting the natural systems that underpin climate and economic stability worldwide,” said Dr. Kano.
To put it into perspective, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that oil and gas demand will peak by 2030, giving more clout to an industry that has held African governments hostage for over a century.
Their playbook is to influence energy deals on exploration, distribution and consumption, arm- twisting governments to enter into contracts that make profits for the companies and not for the continent, experts argue.
Policy manipulation leaves governments starved of finances to invest in renewable energy, which Africa holds in plenty, from critical minerals, to wind, solar and geothermal sources. Last year, about $2 trillion was invested in renewables globally, but Africa’s share of this investment was only 2%. Yet studies indicate that about 600 million people in the sub-Saharan Africa lack access to electricity, representing about 80% of the world’s total population facing energy poverty. Many in this demography just need basic resilience building technologies.
Cooking technologies would, for instance, come cheap to many struggling families while agriculture production powered by solar energy irrigation would thrive, were Africa to increase investments in renewable energy from 2% to at least 20% by the end of the decade, a target that the Heads of State declaration sought at the second Africa Climate Summit held in Addis Ababa in September 2025.
But renewables alone cannot close the energy poverty gap, says Mo Ibrahim, while questioning the value of a one-size-fits-all fossil fuel phase-out that fails to recognize Africa’s reality.
“By ignoring the root cause of the climate crisis, we are not only postponing solutions, but also deepening the injustice. For Africa, climate change is not an abstract concept, it is a lived experience. The 1.5°C is not a target, it is a threshold for survival. The real question is, which lives matter?” said Koaile Monaheng, a political strategist at Greenpeace Africa.
Samuel attempts to answer, and the response does not look good for Africa. Cyclones, hurricanes, drought and floods have surged. In their wake, they leave front-line communities with a growing disease burden compounded by shortened lifespans, conflict, violence and displacement, she says.
And even though global movements are carving out pathways to break free from the consensus deadlock on fossil fuel transition, Africa will face the heaviest fallout from COPs standoffs on climate change negotiations, she says.
“When consensus deadlock is used by vested interests to dilute COP30’s final agreement to climate denialism, then it is no surprise that the leading cause of climate breakdown, fossil fuels, remains conspicuously absent from the final COP30 decision text. For our continent, every new oil pipeline, every new coal mine, every new gas terminal, means climate catastrophe,” said Samuel.
Ambrose Fayolle, the vice president at European Investment Bank, argues that COP30 made progress in pushing for multilateralism, especially on reaching consensus to triple Adaptation finance by 2035. Belem also triggered formation of new alliances on just energy transition, and will be tested during the first International Conference for the Phase-out of Fossil Fuels in April next year to be co-hosted by Columbia, which is also world’s fifth largest coal producer, and the Netherlands.
Still, oil producing states held high stakes at the negotiations despite good leadership by the COP30 and Brazil Presidencies, and as long as they carried the day, the global green transition will continue slowing, argues Jennifer Morgan, former German climate envoy.
“It was a big ask to come forth. The reality is transitioning away from and into the phasing out is complex,” said Inger Andersen, executive director at UN Environment Program (UNEP), ahead of the seventh United Nations General Assembly (UNEA 7).
The slowing down of fossil fuel transition has consequences for Africa’s biodiversity. Habitats are being destroyed as land is set aside for fossil fuels extraction. Species are on the decline due to pollution of their habitats, ecosystems balance is being tipped due to pressure on the natural systems. This pressure also reduces natural gene flows and increases inbreeding within fragmented populations.
“Environmental and climate impacts are accelerating and heat intensifying. Rising emissions are fueling record heat waves, nature and ecosystems are disappearing all over the world, and we are seeing toxicity polluting our air, our water and our soil. These are global threats that spare no nation, including Kenya, and demand global solutions,” said Andersen.
Africa, which is home to fossil fuel projects such as the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline, Ravuma NLG in Mozambique, Namibia’s Okavango exploration and Tanzania’s NLG, is banking on the April conference to flip the just energy transition deadlock. According to Melaku Yirga, the Vice President at Mercy Corps Africa region, the gathering is a real chance to map out practical pathways to phase out fossil fuels and shape a roadmap ahead of COP31.
“If the world does not cut emissions and slow this crisis, adaptation costs will keep rising. African communities that contributed the least to the problem will continue to face the harshest impacts. The need for action could not be more urgent,” said Yirga.
