Countries concluded two weeks of negotiations at the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in Riyadh without securing a binding agreement on how to address global drought.
Delegates had hoped to finalize a legally enforceable protocol, but instead ended with plans to work toward a drought regime at COP17 in Mongolia in 2026.
According to officials and observers, more time is needed to bridge differences on a measure that could hold governments accountable for drought preparedness and response.
UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw acknowledged the outcome. “Parties need more time to agree on the best way forward,” he said before dawn on Saturday, as negotiations wrapped up a day late.
Before the talks began, Thiaw had described drought as “the most pervasive and the most disruptive environmental disaster.” He noted that the world expected COP16 to adopt a bold decision. This did not happen.
African nations pushed for a binding drought protocol. Such a protocol would ensure that “every government will be held responsible” for preparing and responding to droughts.
Zimbabwe’s Minister of Environment, Sithembiso G.G. Nyoni,said African countries demonstrated a “strong united front” on this issue. Yet the text ultimately fell short of these ambitions.
Nyoni said developed countries preferred a non-binding framework over a protocol. African delegates found this inadequate.
Indigenous groups also supported a protocol. Praveena Sridhar, Chief Technical Officer of Save Soil, said a binding agreement could have enabled better drought monitoring, early warning systems, and coordinated response plans.
Without a protocol, progress might slow. Still, Sridhar urged national governments to move ahead. They can “allocate budgets and subsidies” to help farmers adopt sustainable soil and land management, even without a global mandate.
Drought is not a distant threat. It is already affecting billions of people. The UN says droughts, “fueled by human destruction of the environment,” cost more than $300 billion each year.
By 2050, droughts could affect 75% of the global population. According to a recent UNCCD report, if warming trends continue, nearly five billion people could face drying lands by the end of the century. Today, about one-quarter of the world’s population struggles with drought impacts.
According to UNCCD, restoring 1.5 billion hectares of degraded land by 2030 will require at least $2.6 trillion, or about $1 billion per day until the end of the decade.
At COP16’s first week, more than $12 billion were pledged by various institutions, including the Arab Coordination Group.
The Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership aims to channel public and private funds to at-risk countries. Saudi Arabia’s Environment Minister Abdulrahman AlFadley described these investments as part of the Kingdom’s commitment to combating desertification, land degradation, and drought. He said Saudi Arabia is dedicated “to working with all parties to preserve ecosystems.”
Despite these pledges, many remain concerned that funds will not match the scale of the crisis. Between 2007 and 2017, droughts cost an estimated $125 billion worldwide.
With drought intensity projected to increase by about 30% since 2000, costs are likely to rise. The absence of a binding drought protocol leaves each nation deciding how much to invest and how quickly to act.
The Riyadh talks follow a string of partial or failed outcomes. Biodiversity talks in Colombia, plastics talks in South Korea, and climate finance debates at COP29 in Baku ended without strong global deals.
Tom Mitchell, Executive Director of the International Institute for Environment and Development in London, said “the fractured geopolitical landscape” hinders the COP process. He noted that some voices feel squeezed out, and the urgent crises remain unresolved.
Indigenous communities wanted a protocol to improve accountability. They pointed out that early warning systems, drought-tolerant seeds, and stable financing mechanisms are critical. Without clear international rules, marginalized groups might suffer more.
Oliver Tester from Australia, a representative of Indigenous Peoples, who attended a side event, said local knowledge could guide restoration. Tester said small projects integrating traditional water-saving techniques have helped several villages adapt to dry spells. “We need recognition and support,” Tester said. “A global protocol would give us a stronger platform to share what works.”
Sridhar of Save Soil noted that focusing on land and agriculture can unify stakeholders. “Nobody’s going to say ‘I don’t want food’,” she said, contrasting this with the contentious debates over fossil fuels at climate talks.
Although Saudi Arabia faced criticism at other negotiations for its stance on fossil fuel phase-outs, the Kingdom has highlighted desertification and drought as core issues.
Its efforts to promote early warning systems for sand and dust storms and to involve the private sector may help depoliticize this domain.
With no binding protocol at COP16, attention now shifts to COP17 in Mongolia. Parties have three years to find common ground. In the meantime, experts say countries cannot wait. They can start implementing policies that build resilience—such as investing in soil health, diversifying crops, and improving rainwater harvesting.
Governments can use subsidies to encourage sustainable agriculture practices. Companies can test drought-resistant seeds and invest in supply chains resilient to water scarcity. Civil society can push for transparency and ensure that pledged funds reach communities.
Erika Gomez, a negotiator from Panama, said progress was made in other areas, including civil society engagement and gender considerations. But the core drought question remains unresolved. Jes Weigelt of TMG Research, a European climate think-tank, said COP16 “failed to deliver” on the drought deal.
Yet the groundwork is laid. Delegates know what is at stake. Billions of people depend on stable land and water. As the climate changes, failing to prepare for drought could have dire consequences.
