The second week of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, exposed the growing fractures in international climate diplomacy.
While the summit managed to secure a $300 billion annual climate finance deal by 2035, the agreement was overshadowed by sharp criticism from developing nations, bitter negotiations, and fears of political instability disrupting future progress.
The $300 billion pledge, announced in the early hours of Sunday after 30 hours of marathon talks, came dangerously close to failure.
COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev worked through the night, delivering a final gavel before dissent could derail the agreement. The Azerbaijani presidency hailed the deal as a “breakthrough,” but it was far from universally celebrated.
“The $300 billion commitment is woefully inadequate,” said Cedric Schuster, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States. “Our islands are sinking. How can we go back to our people with such a poor deal?” India’s envoy, Chandni Raina, echoed this frustration, calling the outcome “a paltry sum that exposes the unwillingness of developed nations to fulfill their responsibilities.”
The agreement triples the earlier $100 billion annual target set in 2009, which was only fully met in 2022—two years late. However, it falls significantly short of the $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 that developing nations, led by the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) and small island states, had been demanding.
Civil society groups were equally scathing in their assessment. Kelly Stone of ActionAid International described the deal as a “slap in the face” to vulnerable communities.
“The Global North is gambling with the lives of those most affected by climate change,” she said, joining other activists who staged protests inside the conference halls, some taping “Pay Up!” signs to their foreheads.
Jasper Inventor, head of Greenpeace’s COP29 delegation, was equally critical. “This is a reckless failure of ambition. Every government here has protected nature destroyers and prioritized profits over people,” he said.
The deal’s lack of clarity on the source of funds—whether through grants, loans, or private sector investments—was a key point of contention. Lidy Nacpil from the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development argued that the reliance on loans would only deepen the debt crisis in the Global South. “Climate finance cannot come in the form of loans. This perpetuates economic injustice,” she said.
The final days of the summit were marked by tense negotiations that exposed the deep divides between developed and developing nations.
Sierra Leone’s Environment Minister, Jiwoh Abdulai, captured the frustration of many when he described the talks as “a theater of political opportunism.” At one point, blocs representing the least developed countries and small island states staged a walkout, delaying the agreement by hours.
“We came in good faith, with the safety of our communities and the well-being of the world at heart,” said Tina Stege, the Marshall Islands’ climate envoy. “Yet, we have seen the very worst of political opportunism here at this COP.”
Observers noted that the walkout reflected a broader erosion of trust between developed and developing nations. “Multilateralism itself is under threat,” said Eliot Whittington from the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership. “The slow pace of progress and rising tensions are symptoms of a broken system.”
Adding to the complexities of COP29 was the geopolitical turbulence surrounding the negotiations. The return of Donald Trump as U.S. president loomed over the talks, casting doubt on America’s future role in global climate efforts. Trump’s past withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and dismissal of climate change as a “hoax” raised fears that the U.S. might once again disengage from international commitments.
South African Environment Minister Dion George voiced these concerns: “With the United States, we simply do not know what the future holds. This uncertainty undermines global trust and cooperation.”
The war in Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Middle East further diverted global attention and resources away from climate action.
Experts noted that these crises, combined with economic pressures, made securing a larger financial commitment nearly impossible. “Even maintaining climate finance at current levels is a huge fight in this political environment,” said Joe Thwaites from the Natural Resources Defense Council.
The $300 billion annual pledge is intended to help developing nations transition to renewable energy and adapt to worsening climate impacts. A portion of the funds will be dedicated to addressing loss and damage, a critical issue for small island states and vulnerable communities.
Additionally, the agreement includes a commitment to triple the money allocated for adaptation measures. Historically, only 40% of climate finance has gone toward adaptation, leaving many nations ill-prepared for rising sea levels, droughts, and extreme weather events. However, details on how these funds will be distributed remain vague.
“This year is likely to be the hottest on record,” said Simon Stiell, head of the UN climate body. “We are running out of time. No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do.”
The shortcomings of COP29 have set the stage for a challenging road ahead. Brazil will host COP30 in the Amazon city of Belém, where discussions are expected to focus on achieving steeper emissions cuts and enhancing resilience against climate impacts.
“The rifts exposed here in Baku will make Belém an even bigger challenge,” said Oscar Sorria of the Common Initiative think tank. “Brazil faces the daunting task of restoring trust and pushing for meaningful progress.”
Despite the criticism, some observers saw a glimmer of hope in the fact that a deal was reached at all. “The UNFCCC process remains a bright spot in a world increasingly dominated by isolationist politics,” said Whittington. “It proves that even under immense strain, collaboration is possible.”
However, for many developing nations, the outcomes of COP29 were a reminder of the uphill battle they face. As India’s envoy Leela Nandan put it: “The fight for climate justice does not end here. It has only just begun.”
