The WMO report: A warning ignored
As COP29 unfolded, the latest World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report cast a shadow over the proceedings. The report confirmed that 2024 is virtually certain to be the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding preindustrial levels by 1.5°C for the first time.
The rising temperatures are not just a statistical milestone but a harbinger of worsening climate impacts, including more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, and storms. The WMO’s findings indicated the urgency of decisive action, yet the summit failed to address this adequately.
António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, stated the report’s gravity: “The clean energy revolution is here, but so are the impacts of our inaction. We cannot ignore the science.” Despite his warnings, COP29 did little to move from negotiations to tangible action.
The emissions gap: Still unresolved
The UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report, released in the lead-up to COP29, revealed a reality: global emissions are still rising, and current commitments fall far short of the reductions needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
The report indicated that annual investments of $4 trillion in clean energy and related infrastructure are required to meet net-zero goals by 2050. However, COP29’s headline financial commitment—$300 billion annually by 2035—was a fraction of this need.
Chiara Martinelli, Director of Climate Action Network Europe, criticized the commitment as inadequate: “$300 billion annually is breadcrumbs when trillions are needed. This doesn’t even scratch the surface of what’s required to close the emissions gap.”
Without enforceable mechanisms or clear funding pathways, the emissions gap remains a glaring unresolved issue as COP29 concluded.
Where Is the Money? A finance COP without finance
Touted as the “Finance COP,” COP29 was expected to deliver a breakthrough in climate finance, particularly for developing nations. Instead, it largely reproduced the failures of past summits.
The $100 billion annual target, first pledged in 2009, has only recently been met, yet COP29 set its sights on an unambitious $300 billion annually by 2035. Developing nations, led by the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), had demanded $1.3 trillion annually, citing the costs of adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage.
Rohey John, The Gambia’s Minister of Environment, explained the inequity: “This is not about charity. It is about accountability for the damage caused by industrialized nations.”
Moreover, the new loss and damage fund, operationalized at COP29, remains underfunded and mired in debates over who should contribute and how claims should be processed.
Fossil fuel lobbyists and Saudi Arabia’s obstruction
The presence of 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists at COP29, outnumbering the delegates of most nations, was emblematic of the challenges facing global climate diplomacy. These representatives pushed for the inclusion of “transitional fuels” like natural gas, diluting commitments to phase out fossil fuels.
Saudi Arabia, a key oil producer, led efforts to weaken the language around fossil fuel phaseouts. While last year’s COP28 agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, Saudi negotiators ensured that the words “fossil fuels” were conspicuously absent from this year’s final agreement.
Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa, called it “a blatant victory for the fossil fuel lobby,” adding, “The interests of polluters continue to undermine progress at every level.”
Progress on methane reduction: A lone bright spot
One of the few successes at COP29 was the pledge to reduce methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas responsible for 25% of global warming. Over 30 countries, representing nearly 50% of global methane emissions, committed to cutting emissions from organic waste, particularly in landfills.
John Kerry, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, explained the importance of this agreement: “Methane is a low-hanging fruit. Addressing it can deliver immediate climate benefits.”
The pledge also included commitments to invest in methane capture technologies, with potential applications in energy generation. However, implementation remains a concern, as critics warned that similar commitments in the past have lacked robust enforcement mechanisms.
Youth empowerment: A promising initiative
Youth voices were more prominent than ever at COP29, with the adoption of a universal youth clause into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This clause positions young people as central stakeholders in climate negotiations.
António Guterres addressed youth representatives directly, saying, “You have every right to be angry. I am angry too.” The UK became the first country to sign the clause, and its widespread adoption could symbolize a generational shift in climate leadership.
Road to COP30
As COP29 wrapped up, the focus already shifted to COP30 in Belém, Brazil, billed as the “Youth COP.” With the ten-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement approaching, the stakes could not be higher. Countries must submit updated emissions reduction plans by February 2025, and progress made in Belém will determine whether the world can stay on track to meet its 1.5°C target.
Despite limited successes, COP29 left many critical issues unresolved, from the emissions gap to climate finance. The next summit must deliver concrete action to restore trust and ensure accountability. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned, “The world must pay up, or humanity will pay the price.”
