As the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan, the atmosphere was one of mixed emotions.
While a $300 billion climate finance deal was heralded as a breakthrough by some, the summit exposed deep divisions between developed and developing nations, leaving many stakeholders dissatisfied. The road to COP30 in Belém, Brazil, now looms as a critical juncture in the global fight against climate change.
The $300 billion annual pledge for climate finance by 2035, intended to support vulnerable nations in adapting to and mitigating climate impacts, dominated the headlines.
While the sum represents an increase from the $100 billion target set in 2009, it falls far short of the $1.3 trillion annually that developing nations deemed necessary.
Juan Carlos Monterrey Gómez, Panama’s climate envoy, called the agreement “death and misery for our countries,” adding that the process left many negotiators exhausted and unable to effectively advocate for their nations’ needs.
Chandni Raina, India’s chief negotiator, dismissed the deal as a “stage-managed travesty of justice.” The representative for the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) bloc described the outcome as “a betrayal,” accusing wealthier nations of failing to take responsibility for the climate crisis they disproportionately caused.
While Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, likened the deal to “throwing a plank of wood to drowning nations instead of a lifeboat.” The outrage was compounded by the vague mechanisms outlined for raising the funds, which included private sector investments, bilateral arrangements, and levies yet to be agreed upon.
Although the loss and damage fund created at COP28 had been seen as a victory for climate-vulnerable nations, progress in Baku was limited.
The fund received an additional $700 million in pledges, including significant contributions from the United Arab Emirates and Germany, but remained far from operationalization.
Obed Koringo, climate policy adviser at CARE International, expressed frustration: “The New Collective Quantified Goal fails to provide guaranteed, dedicated funding for loss and damage. This is both a moral failure and a practical obstacle for vulnerable communities.”
The costs of climate adaptation in developing nations are already staggering. A 2023 report by the United Nations Environment Programme estimates that these costs will reach $215 billion annually by the end of the decade. Despite this, only 40% of existing climate finance is allocated for adaptation, leaving critical needs unmet.
COP29 also saw the unraveling of a hard-won commitment from COP28 to phase out fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, led efforts to block the inclusion of language supporting the transition from coal, oil, and gas.
Oscar Soria, a director at the Common Initiative think tank, criticized these tactics as “deliberate subversion of global climate goals.” Attempts to retain even a watered-down version of the commitment failed, deferring the issue to COP30.
The host country itself faced scrutiny. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who referred to fossil fuels as a “gift from God,” was accused of using COP29 to secure deals for gas expansion. Allegations that Saudi delegates had unilaterally edited negotiation texts without consultation only deepened mistrust.
The re-election of Donald Trump in the United States loomed large over the summit. Trump’s previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and his promises to expand fossil fuel production cast doubt on the U.S.’s future commitments.
Dion George, South Africa’s Environment Minister, noted the impact of this uncertainty: “With the United States disengaged, trust in the process is eroded. This undermines the very foundation of global cooperation.”
Global geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, further diverted attention from climate action. Tightened government budgets and rising energy prices made securing greater financial commitments nearly impossible.
As the summit concluded, prominent voices called for a fundamental overhaul of the COP process. In an open letter to the UNFCCC Secretariat, leaders like Ban Ki-moon, Mary Robinson, and Christiana Figueres urged reforms to make negotiations faster and more accountable.
Greta Thunberg and other activists staged protests, highlighting the influence of fossil fuel lobbyists, who reportedly outnumbered representatives from vulnerable nations at COP28 and COP29. The selection of Azerbaijan as the host country, despite its heavy reliance on oil and gas exports, drew sharp criticism.
“There is no room for fossil fuel apologists in climate negotiations,” said Lidy Nacpil of the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development. “The process must align with science and justice, not the interests of polluters.”
Despite the widespread dismay, COP29 saw a record $2 trillion in global investments in renewable energy in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. Simon Stiell, UN climate chief, pointed to this as a sign of momentum. “The clean energy boom is unstoppable. It brings jobs, growth, and a pathway to a sustainable future.”
China’s claim of providing $24.5 billion in climate finance since 2016 also highlighted the potential of South-South cooperation to fill gaps left by Western nations. However, the need for systemic change was a recurring theme.
Celeste Saulo, head of the World Meteorological Organization, warned that 2024, the hottest year on record, underscored the urgency of immediate action. “Global warming is no longer a distant threat; it is a present reality,” she said.
The challenges of COP29 now shift to Brazil, where COP30 in Belém will take place under the shadow of unresolved issues and growing geopolitical uncertainty. The conference will serve as the final opportunity for nations to align their national commitments with the 1.5°C target, a goal many fear is slipping out of reach.
Claudio Angelo, of Observatório do Clima, described the stakes for Brazil as unprecedented: “COP30 will be a turning point—or a breaking point. The world is watching.”
The bitter divisions and unmet expectations of Baku proved the need for COP30 to deliver transformative change. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, “The world must pay up, or humanity will pay the price. Climate finance is not charity; it’s an investment in our shared future.”
