Donald Trump’s second term marks a potential shift in global climate dynamics.
His administration’s disengagement from the Paris Agreement and rollbacks on clean energy policies pose risks but also present opportunities for Africa. As Trump’s policies lean heavily towards fossil fuels, African nations stand at a juncture to capitalize on renewable energy and mineral resources.
Risks to African Economies
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement undermines global climate action. This disengagement can weaken international funding mechanisms critical for African climate resilience.
According to the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), climate finance plays a key role in mitigating the continent’s vulnerability to extreme weather events like droughts and floods, which have become increasingly severe.
“The United States’ leadership is critical in mobilizing resources for vulnerable regions like Africa,” said Amb Ali Mohamed, Chair of the AGN in a statement . “We urge the incoming administration to prioritize climate finance and uphold its commitments under multilateral frameworks.”
The United States’ rollback on Biden-era clean energy policies could disrupt global markets. Analysis by the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University indicates that U.S. retreat on clean energy may shift $80 billion in supply chain opportunities to other regions.
However, African nations dependent on U.S. climate finance currently estimated at $20 billion under the Biden administration risk losing critical funding for renewable energy projects.
Additionally, Trump’s prioritization of oil and gas exploration, including reversing bans on offshore drilling, risks stalling Africa’s transition to clean energy.
Joab Okanda, a climate and energy expert, explained the potential consequences. “Trump’s policies could put African economies on the firing line while maintaining an extractive colonial economic hierarchy,” he said. “Africa must see this as an opportunity to lead the charge towards a sustainable future by utilizing its strategic resources.”
Opportunities for Renewable Energy
Despite these risks, Africa’s vast renewable energy potential offers a path forward. The continent receives 40% of the world’s solar energy potential but currently harnesses less than 2% of it.
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates that Africa’s renewable energy sector could create up to 2 million jobs by 2030, positioning the region as a leader in global clean energy production.
Key examples include Morocco’s Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex, the largest solar farm in the world, which provides energy to 1.3 million people. South Africa’s wind energy sector, producing 59% of the country’s power in some states, further demonstrates the potential for renewable energy growth.
Alexandra Scott, Senior Expert on Climate Diplomacy at ECCO, noted the growing economic opportunities in renewable energy. “The scale of clean energy markets today presents a chance for Africa to not only meet its energy needs but to become a major player globally,” she said. “This requires strategic investment and global partnerships.”
Strategic Mineral Leverage
Africa’s critical minerals, such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements, are essential for clean energy technologies like batteries and electric vehicles. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) supplies over 70% of the world’s cobalt, while South Africa holds significant reserves of platinum, a key material for hydrogen fuel cells.
Trump’s policies could inadvertently boost African mineral exports. The U.S. retreat from clean energy markets may shift demand to Africa, offering an economic lifeline. However, Okanda cautions that without sustainable mining practices, these opportunities could exacerbate environmental degradation and social inequality.
Okanda explained the importance of governance in leveraging these resources. “Africa’s critical minerals must be developed sustainably,” he said. “This is an opportunity to rewrite the narrative, ensuring that these resources benefit local communities while contributing to global climate solutions.”
The Role of Global Partnerships
With the U.S. stepping back, African nations can deepen ties with other global players. China, the EU, and India have demonstrated strong commitments to renewable energy and climate action. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has funded multiple renewable energy projects across Africa, while the EU’s Green Deal offers pathways for African nations to partner on clean energy solutions.
“Europe and Africa must work together to advance the global energy transition,” said Linda Kalcher, Executive Director at Strategic Perspectives. “This partnership can help Africa build resilience while establishing itself as a leader in clean energy.”
Russia’s rare call for Trump to remain in the Paris Agreement explains the global stakes of U.S. climate policies. European leaders insits on the need for multilateralism, with Kalcher adding that “preserving global alliances is key to advancing a sustainable future.”
Domestic Climate Action
African nations are not passive observers. Kenya has committed to achieving 100% renewable energy by 2030, while Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative has planted over 25 billion trees since 2019. These efforts reflect growing domestic momentum to combat climate change and build sustainable economies.
Non-federal actors in the U.S. also offer hope. Over 5,000 local leaders, representing 74% of U.S. GDP, have pledged to uphold the Paris Agreement’s goals. This subnational commitment can provide indirect support for African nations reliant on U.S. climate action.
Africa’s response to Trump’s climate rollbacks must be strategic. By prioritizing renewable energy and leveraging critical minerals, African nations can position themselves as leaders in global climate solutions. Strengthened partnerships with China, the EU, and other allies can offset risks posed by U.S. disengagement.
Amb Mohamed stated that path forward: “Africa stands ready to work with global partners to build a more sustainable and resilient future. Together, we can ensure that the promise of climate action translates into tangible benefits for our people.”
He said Trump’s policies may widen gaps in global climate action. But for Africa, they also illuminate pathways to resilience and leadership in the clean energy transition.
